Grayscale Investments, the establishment known for its Bitcoin Trust, is expected to face an average outflow of $110 million daily in the first month with their forthcoming Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF). This mimics the trend seen during the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s (GBTC) transition to an ETF. Despite this, investors remain optimistic, drawing inspiration from the resilience of the Bitcoin Trust.
During the transition of GBTC, there was an initial outflow close to $6.5 billion, which constituted about 23% of its managed assets. Even though outflows stabilized in the months that followed, fluctuations were still significant. Despite this turbulence, GBTC has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with investors remaining confident about its growth potential.
The situation with the Ether Fund (ETHE) is predicted to be no different.
Anticipating Ether fund’s initial outflows impact
Currently managing $11 billion in assets, it could see a daily outflow of $110 million, representing 30% of Ethereum’s average daily trade volume on Coinbase. The repercussions of this could significantly influence the stability and fluctuations of the Ether Fund’s liquidity.
ETHE, which has been trading at a discount of up to 26% compared to its net asset value (NAV) in recent months, is expected to experience extensive outflows or redemptions along with the contraction of the NAV’s discount as it transitions to an ETF. The projected surge in outflows is likely to intensify, leading to a potential decline in ETHE’s trading value and possible sell-offs.
The anticipation of the transition has resulted in a reduction of the discount after the SEC announced approval of spot Ether ETFs on May 23rd. The largest discount of over 25% on May 1st decreased remarkably to 1.28% by May 24th due to speculative trading rumors of SEC approval. This marked a significant turning point in trading patterns.
The final note to remember is that the funds that flowed out from GBTC were mostly redirected to other Bitcoin ETFs. Despite what might seem like insufficient initial inflows into the newly-sanctioned Ether ETF, this development could boost Ethereum’s standing as an asset class by easing regulatory concerns. Indeed, relieving these issues could counterbalance any negative impacts on ETH’s performance over the past year.
