Scientists warn that Earth’s climate system could face irreversible consequences if global warming surpasses the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement. A new study suggests that exceeding this limit could trigger a series of tipping points, making recovery extremely challenging. The research, led by climate scientists Tessa Möller and Annika Ernest Högner at the University of Potsdam in Germany, investigates four possible points of no return.
These include the collapses of the Amazon rainforest, the Greenland ice sheet, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the Atlantic Ocean Currents system. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1°C of overshoot above 1.5°C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0°C,” the authors noted. The findings emphasize the importance of adhering to the Paris Agreement and keeping global warming well below 2°C.
If temperatures exceed the 1.5°C threshold, one tipping point might trigger another, and it’s unclear whether these thresholds can be reversed or slowed down. Using complex models, the researchers assessed the threat of tipping risks in the short term (by 2100), medium term (until 2300), and long term (after 50,000 years). At the current rate of warming, models show that by 2300, the tipping risk could reach 45%, and in the long term, it could nearly double to 76%.
Climate risks from surpassing 1.5°C
“The transient nature of an overshoot might offer a window of opportunity to counteract anthropogenic emissions with rapid interventions and stabilize the ice sheets before tipping is locked in,” the researchers suggested. Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 will be “paramount to minimizing tipping risk in the long term,” the team concluded.
The stability of our planet’s climate system is at stake. Scientists warn that climate change could trigger irreversible tipping points in Earth’s natural systems, including coral reef die-offs, permafrost thawing, and ice sheet collapses. Rising temperatures threaten mass coral bleaching and death, with up to 99% of reefs at risk, disrupting marine ecosystems.
With every gram of additional CO2 in the atmosphere, we are increasing the likelihood of tipping events,” said Niklas Boers, a climate scientist at the Technical University of Munich and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Understanding and mitigating these risks is crucial for sustaining life and stability on Earth. Scientists emphasize the urgent need for global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and prevent these tipping points from being reached.
Immediate action is required to address these risks and ensure a sustainable future for the planet.
