The world is rapidly approaching a critical juncture in the fight against climate change.
Our future climate – what's in store?
▪️ Many climate-related risks are higher for any given future warming level.
▪️Projected long-term impacts are up to multiple times higher
▪️High risks are now assessed to occur at lower global warming levels.➡️ https://t.co/zAMzd12lR7 pic.twitter.com/rOk0hoiYja
— IPCC (@IPCC_CH) August 20, 2024
A new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change reveals that the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is no longer attainable. The best-case scenario, according to the researchers, is now 1.6 degrees Celsius.
"We argue that the undersampling of population uncertainties limits the range of future emission trajectories and has implications for climate transition scenarios"
New article in our Special Collection on IPCC in @ClimateActionSN https://t.co/aXgWtDojx1 pic.twitter.com/204bn5CNBp
— Glen Peters (@Peters_Glen) August 20, 2024
The study’s lead author, Christoph Bertram, an associate research professor at the University of Maryland and guest researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, states, “Limiting peak temperature to below 1.5°C is not possible with even moderate likelihood anymore.” The research team ran models that considered limitations such as effective policymaking and regulation, and found that these constraints significantly impact the lowest peak warming still possible. Despite the recent surge in the deployment of low-carbon technologies, such as solar and wind energy, and electric vehicles, Bertram emphasizes that technological constraints are no longer the limiting factor. “In North America, Europe, and China, given the recent successes of clean energy deployment, there is significant potential for substantial acceleration of emission reductions, provided the right policies are enacted,” he notes.
The study highlights the importance of effective governance and policy implementation in combating climate change.
Approaching a critical climate limit
Governments are currently falling short in setting ambitious climate targets and implementing appropriate policies.
New must-read article by my friend @DrJeffMasters via @CC_Yale: "When will climate change turn life in the U.S. upside down?" https://t.co/cyGp0V6foX
— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) August 19, 2024
Can we avoid 1.5º of global warming? Probably not and our best case scenario is 1.6º, scientists sayhttps://t.co/wtH7QluX1o
— Moms Clean Air Force (@CleanAirMoms) August 20, 2024
Some countries lack the infrastructure or bureaucratic systems to enforce policies like carbon pricing, reducing their ability to decarbonize rapidly. To achieve faster decarbonization in these regions, international support is necessary to increase institutional capacities and make the deployment of clean technologies more affordable and accessible. Even limiting warming to 1.6°C will require significant political will from higher-income countries.
Dr. Ken Caldeira, an atmospheric scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science’s Department of Global Ecology, emphasizes the real-world consequences of this benchmark, stating, “A year above 1.5C is unprecedented in human history. Nevertheless, it is important to remember that each carbon dioxide emission causes another increment of global warming and so each emission avoided is an increment of global warming avoided.”
The study underscores the urgent need for accelerated action to transition to renewable energy sources and other carbon-neutral technologies to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change.
Time is running out, and the call for honesty and substantive change in our climate policy has never been more urgent.
